In terms of digital coverage, I may or may not take one more stab at a final snow map and fresh blog post Monday afternoon. And then I'll be in the weather center extra early Tuesday morning to carry you through the worst of the wintry weather.
In terms of my coverage plan, I'll have regular weather updates all day. We may see some advisories for wind and coastal flooding added to the mix at some point too. (Without that snowfall sweet spot, down to the I-78 corridor or so.) I suspect - if the forecast holds - we will see more advisories issued before the storm arrives. (For the record, that end time seems awfully late.) That is the area of the state subject to downright dangerous travel conditions due to snowy roads and severely reduced visibility.Ī less urgent, less severe Winter Weather Advisory has been put out for eastern Passaic and western Bergen counties. And a warning is posted for western Passaic county from 10 p.m. The strongest gusts will actually come after the storm's precipitation wraps up.Ī Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Morris, Sussex, and Warren counties from 6 p.m. In addition to snow, regular wind gusts of 40 mph are likely, shifting from east-northeast to northwest. Blur your eyes, stay as flexible as possible, prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. That's how tight the snowfall gradient will be. Look at the snow forecast for places like Warren and Bergen counties - literally ranging from an inch to a foot! I'm glad I don't have to forecast for New York City anymore, because all five boroughs could see drastically different snow totals from this one. This is a tough forecast to make, and even tougher to fully comprehend.
I got a little lazy here, and decided not to draw a definitive "zero" contour - but those south of Interstate 195 will see very little snowfall here. But little to no snow accumulation is anticipated. South of exit 9 on the Turnpike, you will probably see snowflakes at some point. Roads could get slushy, especially the farther north you are. South of Interstate 78, wintry impacts will be limited to an inch or two of accumulation, at best. This basically translates to "the rest of North Jersey," between I-80 and I-78. Leading to the potential for moderate travel issues. Just to the south of the "snow burial zone" will be a narrow zone of moderate snow accumulation, on the order of 3 to 6 inches. And again, what falls on Tuesday will probably be snow or at least wintry mix - high temperatures will be in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Snow may be heavy at times, especially to the north and east. We are still going to see snowflakes falling during the daytime hours on Tuesday, as the coastal low meanders just northeast of NJ. One of the biggest differences in model guidance right now is determining when the storm fizzles out and moves away enough for snow to end. (FYI, all my snowfall calculations are based on an average 7:1 snow to water ratio.) Phase 3: Snow Continues (Tuesday) That also contributes to it being a heavy, wet snow. At or above the freezing mark, again making it very hard to get snow to stick. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the lower to mid 30s. That will limit what falls from the sky going forward to just showers. So in South Jersey, the "faucet" will get turned off by around daybreak Tuesday morning. However, to the southwest, drier air will start to work in on the back side of this system. And road conditions could go downhill quickly, as snow starts to accumulate overnight in colder North Jersey - especially if we get a band of heavy snow to set up. By just before daybreak Tuesday morning (5 or 6 a.m.), all of New Jersey should be cold enough to sustain snowflakes. Temperatures will start dropping late Monday evening (again, after about 9 or 10 p.m.), forcing an eventual transition from rain to snow. Well above freezing.Īfter about 4 p.m., rainfall should become steadier and heavier through the evening hours. High temperatures will reach the lower to mid 40s Monday afternoon.
0 kommentar(er)
